In 2015, amid growing uncertainty and skepticism towards to the European refugee crisis spurred by increased violence in the Middle East, many Germans began to embrace nationalistic and protectionist ideologies. Right-wing pundits and ideologues started to amass unprecedented followings as they championed strict immigration regulation, and the “protection” of German ethnicity and culture. As the 2017 Federal Elections neared, a new German political party emerged. The Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) party, conceived by a group of far-right German professors, quickly garnered members and grew in popularity among low-income, white Germans. In the run up to the September 2017 Federal Elections, political analysts expected significant party defection from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Germany’s resident conservative party, to the AfD, which had continued to build support and as regional conservative factions joined its ranks. Sure enough, on September 24th, the AfD won 12.6% of the vote, clearing the 5% threshold by wide margins and entering Bundestag as the third largest political faction.
We can understand the movement that led to the AfD’s unprecedented electoral success by examining the cultural and historical undercurrents of German society, but we can understand the AfD and it’s institutional goals through John Aldrich’s three-pronged theory of party goals and challenges.
Aldrich suggests that political parties face three distinct challenges in their efficacy: getting politicians elected, passing policy, and maintaining support and collective action. Parties attempt to gain standing and power in a political system by getting their candidate elected to office. Once in office, they use their platform to promote policies that appease their constituents in pursuit of the third goal -- to maintain support. It appears that Frauke Petry, the chairwoman of the AfD, is willing to sacrifice policy goals in exchange for long-term support from the conservative base.
The AfD succeeded beyond projections due to its unified campaign promises of comprehensive nationalists policies. Winning 3 directly-elected seats and 91 more from their party list, the AfD’s strategy of uniting various highly conservative factions in order to enter the Bundestag worked well to achieve Aldrich's first party goal, but presents unique problems as the AfD sets out to achieve the next goal -- passing policy.
The day after the AfD’s unprecedented electoral success, Petry announced her departure from the party at a press conference originally intended to celebrate the previous day’s winnings. Petry, who stood on the moderate side of the party, cited conflict among the ranks of the party leadership as grounds for her exit. As party leadership rushed to regroup, rumors spread that she may forge ahead and create a more moderate (but still right-wing) party called the “Blaue Partei”(Blue Party). According to Aldrich’s theory, Petry’s behavior initially appears highly irrational as it dashes any hopes the AfD had to pursue policy that would have advanced their cause.
Although the AfD’s election results were impressive, they still only captured 94 of 709 seats in the german parliamentary body. The likelihood that the newly fractured parts of the AfD could garner enough votes in the Bundestag to pass any new legislation is practically zero. Aldrich posits that policy formation and execution is a highly partisan endeavor which requires strict party discipline to achieve. Petry’s exit from the party may signal her shaken confidence in the party’s ability to pass policy that would favor its base. It also may be her attempt to address Aldrich’s third challenge of partisanship, maintaining support.
If Frauke Petry believed that a unified AfD had little chance of passing policy and that the party would face challenges maintaining the support if its should remain unified, it may have made political sense to sacrifice current policy goals for long-term support and future legislative successes. German political experts suggests that this AfD win may light a fire under liberals and initiate a shift back to liberal ideals. Should that happen, Petry would be stuck on a sinking ship within the AfD. As the leader of a more moderate right-wing party, should would likely be able to maintain much of the AfD’s current base and probably gain a number of adherents from more liberal parties as well.
Whether they consciously choose it or not, politicians likely act to address the three distinct challenges of winning elections, passing policy, and maintaining support. Petry’s surrender in the fight for policy wins may be an indicator that she’s playing the long game for maintained collective action and support from highly conservative German voters.
Bundestag Photo Credit: https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB224666/German-election-results-point-to-three-party-coalition
Petry Photo Credit: https://cdn4.img.sputniknews.com/images/105770/44/1057704490.jpg
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