Native American Voter Mobilization and Election Turnout (Micah Wimmer)

Native American participation in politics

Native American voter turnout and participation in politics are among the lowest of any ethnic group in the United States. While Native Americans make up nearly 1% of the US population, Republican and Democratic parties have largely ignored this underrepresented demographic. However, amidst the flipping of Arizona into a blue state in the November General Election and Biden’s most recent appointment of Deb Haaland to Secretary of the Interior, Native American representation is seemingly increasing and the Native vote has been recognized as a force to be reckoned with. The Democratic party holds a strong lead among Native voters compared to its Republican counterpart. Due to an increased tendency for Native Americans to vote for the Democratic party, I thought it would be important to measure Democratic mobilization efforts among Native Americans to determine whether or not mobilization efforts led to an increase in votes for the Democratic party. I found that because of disproportionately high levels of poverty among Native Americans, many favor liberal economic policies and support for federal aid, thus explaining a tendency to vote for the Democratic Party. With such an advantage over the Republican party, the question remained whether or not the Democratic party valued or sought to increase its voter base among reservation-residing Native Americans within Arizona.

Why Don’t Native Americans vote?

The Native American story is unique, as the original inhabitants of the North American continent, Native Americans are the only ethnic minority to engage in formal relations with the US government. More often than not, Native Americans were forced to relinquish cultural ties or give up precious ancestral lands in order to obtain citizenship or join in politics. It’s not that Native Americans don’t want their voices to be heard, history has taught them that enfranchisement and participation in politics come at a cost. Native Americans are reluctant to participate in politics because they distrust the federal government and doubt the efficacy of their vote. Hundreds of years of inadequate implementation of legislation providing Native Americans with citizenship and voting rights has conditioned many to accept historical disenfranchisement from politics. Native Americans residing on reservations are especially vulnerable to voter disenfranchisement, long distances to polling stations, inadequate information on registering to vote, and high levels of poverty significantly reduce  Native American voter turnout and participation in nation-wide politics. The coronavirus introduced many new challenges to reservations, Native American communities were among the most negatively affected by the pandemic. 

My Research Design

In large part, due to the influential impact of the Native American vote in Arizona and their role in securing a Biden victory, I’ve set out to determine the efficacy of Democratic voter mobilization efforts among Native Americans residing on reservations in Arizona. I selected three counties in Arizona, Pima, Apache, and Navajo county. To control for ethnicity I selected three voter precincts within each county, located within a Native American reservation. I gathered precinct-level election data from the 2016 and 2020 General Elections and recorded the increase of votes for the Democratic and Republican candidates within each precinct. In addition to measuring the increase of votes, I also conducted a qualitative case study investigating Democratic voter outreach initiatives and activity to determine whether or not voter mobilization efforts were responsible for an increase in ballots cast for the Democratic candidates. With no shortage of precincts located on Native American reservations, I’m confident my results accurately represent Native American voting patterns in the state of Arizona. 

Results:

Within each of the voter precincts analyzed I found that the Democratic candidates received a substantial increase of votes from the 2016 to 2020 elections. In all but one precinct, the Democratic candidates held a substantial lead over the Republican candidates and possessed much higher voter shares. When averaging the increase of voter shares among Democratic and Republican candidates in 9 different precincts in Arizona, the Democratic party saw an increase of 2.71% while the Republican party had an increase of 2.52%. While these figures only take into account Republican and Democratic voter shares, a democratic majority of voter shares is consistent throughout both the 2016 and 2020 elections, supporting the theory that Native Americans overwhelmingly cast their ballots for the Democratic party. An increase of over 2% in voter turnout is significant, meaning that mobilization efforts were considered effective given a 2% margin of increase. When conducting an investigation of Democratic outreach and voter mobilization efforts I found that non-partisan voter mobilization organizations were much more prominent and active among Native Americans residing on reservations in Arizona. I believe that the 2.71% increase of voter shares from the 2016 to 2020 elections was less a result of Democratic voting mobilization efforts and more related to the activities of groups such as “RuralUtah” and “Get Out The Vote” rather than efforts on behalf of the Democratic Party. Since I’ve confirmed that Native Americans tend to vote for the Democratic party I can conclude from my results that practically any mobilization efforts among Native Americans would result in higher voter turnout for the Democratic Party as non-partisan organizations were much more active than the Democratic party.