Kadima Can't Compromise

The Kadima Party in Israel holds 28 seats which is more than any other single Israeli party and almost a fourth of the total seats in the Knesset. However, the party has had almost zero influence on policy decisions in the last three years. Smaller parties were able to exert more influence on issues that Kadima cared about. Avi Dichter is running for Kadima Party Chairman on the platform that if he is elected, then he will make every effort to join Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. Dichter argues that it is extremely important to join Netanyahu’s coalition so that Kadima can have at least some impact on central issues. (http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=257490). Kadima’s primaries are scheduled to be held on March 27^th. Research implies that Kadima would lose half of its seats in the Knesset if the elections were to be held today. However, Dichter is the only candidate that proposes to compromise with the coalition. Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz have both made it clear that they do not intend to compromise with Netanyahu but to confront it and beat it despite the fact that there is a good possibility that this will not happen. (http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/livni-sets-kadima-primary-for-late-march-as-party-rivals-ramp-up-rhetoric-1.408060 )It seems that ,Dichter may be the only one that can guarantee voters at least some influence. However, Dichter has little support and the primary is seen mostly as a contest between Livni and Mofaz. This puzzling scenario makes more sense if you consider the theory of Hinich and Munger in “Ideaology , Candidate Strategy, and the Theory of Elections”. They claim that candidates need to do two things for voters. The first is provide promises of what they will do if elected. The second is to provide proof that they are committed to their vision. Members of the Kadima party are unwilling to support Dichter because they do not know what he will actually do if he is elected. The other two candidates propose an ideological alternative to the current government. Dichter on the other hand, promises to blend Kadima’s liberal views with the right wing coalition. Voters are uncomfortable supporting someone with a weak ideological tie.