Median Voter Theorem

In democracies around the globe, potential candidates at all levels of politics must appeal to the “Median Voter Theorem.” This theory suggests that middle-of-the-road voters, or “swing votes,” determine election outcomes.  Party loyalists will always vote for their party, no matter who the candidate may be in a given year.  As such, both groups of extreme party voters cancel each other out.  The median vote then becomes the prime audience for campaigners.

In this model, Party A has already secured more votes than party B.  However, if party B gains all of the median votes, they will end up with more overall, and secure the election outcome.  Hence the importance of securing the median vote.

The quest for the median vote is further complicated because candidates must first win over their primary constituencies.  In the current GOP race, each republican nominee must appeal to a conservative base first and foremost.  If they do not win the nomination, a later appeal to the median vote would prove useless.  They therefore must persuade extreme conservatives that they are staunchly conservative at first.

                Once the nomination is secured, their next task is to “liberalize” their speeches.  They have only a few precious months before November elections come to convince the middle voters that they are not in fact extremely conservative.  Every four years, this same foolish tap dance begins anew.

Is there a way for candidates to avoid this risky undertaking?  Can there be a way to grasp the median vote without this political circus?  

President Basher al-Assad of Syria has found a way around the Median Voter Theorem.  This is done in two ways:

Syria has only one ruling political party.  As such, they have no need to tap dance around different constituencies.  This party, the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, has ruled the 250 seated People’s Council for decades.  Minor parties are technically allowed to raise their voice, but they have very little sway.  Furthermore, the Ba’ath Party is always the only one qualified to nominate a Presidential candidate for election.  Therefore, every seven years the Ba’ath Party suggests their Assad, who stays in power, and nothing changes.

The second way that President Assad avoids the pesky Median Voter Theorem is by killing political enemies.  In the article, “Is Syria’s election a sham,” the author writes:

President Bashar al-Assad lets Syrians vote in local elections.  But what good is that when security forces are still killing opposition activists?”

Oppositionist leader Mahmoud Muraie recently told The National, “To call this an election is an abuse of the word… the elections were the first real concession… [yet they reek of an] attempt at placating an angry populace.”

With Syria in mind, we must ask ourselves this question: is our annual four year “Median Voter Theorem dance” really all that bad? Perhaps we should be counting our blessings!

 

http://theweek.com/article/index/222422/is-syrias-election-a-sham

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_voter_theorem