Germany’s colorful political history assures that the ideologies of its various political parties are no less varied. While apparent in campaigns and party manifestos, the salience of these cleavages becomes most apparent when it comes time to form coalitions. After more than four months of coalitions negotiations following the 2016 federal elections, the German party heads finally reach an agreement to form a grand coalition between the SPD and the CDU/CSU. Research on the intricacies of coalition formation both before and after elections coupled with a knowledge of Germany’s political landscape can lend to understanding of the challenges German politicians faced forming a government in the wake of a political shakeup.
The following is an introduction to German political parties to set the stage:
The Left Party
Born from the ashes of the East German socialist party after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Die Linke exhibits ideology that is both fiscally and socially highly liberal.
The Green Party
A champion of environmental and social awareness and sustainability, the party entered the German political sphere as a result of a merger between the East and West German Green parties after reunification in 1990.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP)
The pro-business Free Democratic Party has long been a proponent of market liberalism and civil liberties and is often a coalition partner with the far-larger CDU/CSU.
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
The nationalist right-wing party was developed by a group of Germany professors skeptical of EU influence in the German economy. The party has since become known for its harsh stance on immigration.
The Socialist Democratic Party (SPD)
Established as a Marxist party in the late nineteenth century and then again as a socialist party after World War II, the SPD represents the interests of workers and unions.
The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU)
The CDU, and her Bavarian sister party the CSU, together form the German conservative party alliance that promotes a fiscally conservative agenda and often more traditional social policy.
In the 2016 federal elections, the CDU/CSU suffered considerable losses caused by voter defection to the AfD and the FDP while the SPD experienced losses to smaller left-wing parties; The Left and the Greens. Although the CDU/CSU still won a plurality of the votes, achieving its lowest election result since 1949 gave it significantly less power at the start of coalition negotiations.
CDU/CSU party heads declared they would begin coalition negotiations with the intention of forming a “Jamaica Coalition,” with the FDP and Green parties (a nod to the black-green-yellow Jamaican flag). As months dragged on and no deal had been reached, rumors started to circulate that a grand coalition between the SPD and CDU/CSU was in the works. On February 7, 2018, Angela Merkel announced a coalition government between the CDU/CSU and their direct opponent, the SPD. This announcements was surprising considering the SPD had announced it would, under no circumstances, enter a coalition with the CDU/CSU. So what happened? Scholarly research regarding how German government institutions such as bicameralism and the investiture vote affect which parties form can and will form coalitions after elections.
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| Merkel stand beside coalition partners Horst Seehofer (CSU) and Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) |
Political scholars Sven-Oliver Proksch and Jonathan B. Slapin’s analysis of the importance of investiture votes and unicameralism yield interesting insight into the affects both institutions have on the formation of coalitions. First, minority governments are unlikely to form in Germany, because the investiture vote requires the potential ruling coalitions to receive a vote of support from the majority of parliament. If a minority government tries for the vote and doesn’t succeed, it cannot rule. Second, the CDU/CSU controls higher chamber of parliament which votes on the majority of legislation passed by the lower chamber, the Bundestag. This disincentivizes left-leaning parties from attempting to form governments and nearly ensures that the governing coalition will in some way have to include the CDU/CSU.
Given these constraints, many potential coalitions were ruled out because the barriers imposed are just to great. Here is why two of the most like coalitions did not succeed:
CDU/CSU - FDP
This coalition between two pro-business parties that have limited social policy differences seems to be one of the most likely. A CDU/CSU-FDP government would have little problem passing policy through the Bundesrat, but would likely never get there as it would be a minority government and would likely be kept away from ruling by a lack of support for an investiture vote.
SPD - Left - Green
A coalition of Germany’s left parties would also be unlikely to get past an investiture vote. And even if it did, a large portion of its legislation would never make it past the Bundesrat. Together, these two institutional barriers prevented the success of a coalition from the left.
A final potential solution could have overcome the institutional barriers to coalition formation but encountered a problem that political scientists find much more difficult to study. Throughout the course of coalition negotiations, no party made any attempt to form a government with the AfD. The AfD and CDU/CSU were ideologically closer than most other coalition configurations, but the AfD was never a part of coalition negotiation. This is likely because the incendiary and controversial nature of the AfD’s stance on policies made the AfD an “untouchable” coalition partner. Parties feared that allying with the AfD would follow them into the next election cycle and serve as fodder against their candidates.
Photo Credit Table: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2017/sep/24/german-elections-2017-latest-results-live-merkel-bundestag-afd
Photo Credit Party Leaders: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/904040/Emmanuel-Macron-Angela-Merkel-new-alliance-Austria-Sebastian-Kurz
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