Why Donald Trump was Always Going to get Impeached (and Always Going to get Acquitted)

The Impeachment Vote

On December 18, 2019, the United States held its breath as the House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump. It held its breath again on February 5, 2020 as the Senate voted to acquit him, or free him from all charges.

President Trump had two Articles, or charges, brought against him. The first charge was Abuse of Power. The investigation began when a whistleblower raised concerns that Trump was trying to coerce Ukraine into investigating the Biden family, as Joe Biden is an opponent in the 2020 presidential elections. The second Article of Impeachment was Obstruction of Congress. It states that the White House ignored subpoenas requesting documents and testimony relating to the impeachment investigation.

               Though many news articles framed each vote as suspenseful, nearly all congress members voted with the other members in their party. The House of Representatives currently has 197 Republicans, 232 Democrats, and 1 Independent member. The Senate currently has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independent members.

In the House of Representatives, only a simple majority vote was required to Impeach President Trump. Two Democrats voted against the Articles, one of which is expected to switch parties. One Democrat voted for Article I and against Article II. Another voted “present” for both articles, meaning she chose not to vote for or against impeachment.

From Politico

In the Senate, a 2/3 majority was required to convict Trump, or remove him from office. The votes were ultimately along party lines, with the exception of Mitt Romney, a Republican, who voted on Article I to convict.

 From Politico

Why are we Loyal to our Party?

But why are people so loyal to their political parties? There is no law requiring all Democrats or all Republicans to vote together or to vote a certain way. In the remainder of this article, I will discuss different perspectives of what influences and contributes to party loyalty among the American public and members of Congress, and why they matter.

               Political Scientists Leonie Huddy, Lilliana Mason, and Lene Aarøe describe two ways to think about political participation. An instrumental perspective roots partisanship in how successful the party is in getting what it wants and an individual’s agreement with the party’s policies. The expressive perspective frames partisanship as part of an individual’s identity. Partisanship is strengthened by other social factors like race, gender, or religion and often leads to an emotional attachment to your party.

               Huddy, Mason, and Aarøe propose that the expressive model may better explain the high levels of party affiliation and loyalty that we see today in American politics. Through a series of studies, they found that people who strongly identify themselves as a Republican or Democrat had greater emotional responses when threatened with a defeat or promised a victory than those who weakly identify with a party.

Additionally, and perhaps most significantly, a threat to the status of one’s political party created a stronger emotional response than a threat to a major policy position held by one’s party.

Another study by Lilliana Mason and Julie Wronski found that Republicans tend to identify more closely with the party than Democrats.

More people today do identify strongly with their party. Americans today are more ideologically divided than ever, with most Democrats to the left of the average Republican, and most Republicans to the right of the average Democrat. The percentage of people with a “highly negative view” of the opposite party has doubled since 1994. And this gap is especially large among those who are highly active in politics.

From Pew Research Center

This increased division is also clear in Congress, as shown in the graphic below. While in 1973 there was significant overlap of ideology between Democrats and Republican, today the parties are nearly completely divided.

From Pew Research Center

Conclusion

How does this all relate to the impeachment vote? People are strongly affiliated with their party, and are socially invested in their party doing well. When many people see a threat to their political party, they take it as a threat to their social or personal identity. Members of the American Public do this, and politicians do it too. Thus, a betrayal to the party becomes a personal betrayal, and people get angry.

The response to Mitt Romney’s decision to break from the Republican party and vote “guilty” on Impeachment Article I illustrates this point. While many people praised Romney for having the courage to go against the Republican party, many people saw it as a slight against the party and called for Utah to formally condemn his actions. People on social media proclaimed that they voted for him in 2012, but would never do so today because he is not the politician they thought he was. He was not a defender of the Republican party in they way they wanted a Senator to be.

So why was Donald Trump always going to get impeached and always going to get acquitted? Because the Impeaching House of Representatives has more Democrats than Republicans, and the Acquitting Senate has more Republicans than Democrats. In nearly all cases, members of congress voted the way they were expected to, because today in America, it seems to not be about the issues. It is about the Party.

Sources

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/05/801429948/not-guilty-trump-acquitted-on-2-articles-of-impeachment-as-historic-trial-closes

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/12/politics/impeachment-articles-annotated/

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Unclassified09.2019.pdf

https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown

https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2019/trump-impeachment-vote-count-house-results/

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2019/trump-impeachment-vote-count-senate-results/

https://learningsuite.byu.edu/plugins/Upload/fileDownload.php?fileId=47a4e726-jttt-tIgI-ZH4T-Uw25d874608d

https://learningsuite.byu.edu/plugins/Upload/fileDownload.php?fileId=93a72a6a-6Mbk-j0VH-9wsz-n4901a3266cd

https://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/12/polarized-politics-in-congress-began-in-the-1970s-and-has-been-getting-worse-ever-since/

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/utahns-laud-decry-mitt-romneys-vote-to-convict-trump