Parties are faced with the daunting task of trying to get people to vote for their candidate. The first step is always winning support for their candidate but that is quickly followed up by getting those supporters to actually go out and vote for the candidate. In the 2016 Presidential Election, “nearly 56% of the U.S. voting-age population cast ballots” for a total of 136.8 million people. However, the 2020 election will be happening under very different circumstances. With the coronavirus pandemic wreaking havoc across the nation, many states are examining safe alternatives to in person voting. At the same time, the President has become highly critical of mail in ballots, one of the best alternatives, claiming that they could result in a rigged election. However, other leaders of the party hold the opposite opinion and see mail-in ballots as essential in this election. For campaign leaders and political strategists, they may be using the calculus of voting to come to this conclusion.
The calculus of voting is a mathematical equation used to show why some people vote and other choose not to. It is represented as: R = PB + B + D – C. In the equation, R represents the reward from voting, and logically people will vote if it is above zero and will not vote if it is below zero. The variables that factor into the outcome are:
P- the probability that your vote changes the election outcome
B- how much one candidate is preferred over the other
C- any costs of voting
D- benefits you receive from voting regardless of the outcome
Typically, the P value is extremely close to zero which negates that variable. The size of the B value is often determined by the rhetoric of the campaign. It is a different value for each person but can be influenced through inflated speech and polarization of the candidates. The variables parties can have the largest effect upon are C and D; their options are to increase the incentives to vote or decrease the costs. Costs to voting include things such as transportation to and from polls, time spent voting, the work to understand how to register to vote, and how to cast your ballot. Benefits for voting are usually simple with things such as stickers showing off “I voted” being common incentives.
The 2020 election will be dealing with a sharp increase in costs (C) that has not previously been a challenge: concerns about public health in the midst of a global pandemic. According to a study published by FiveThirtyEight, about 70% of Americans are concerned that they or someone they love will become infected with coronavirus. With concerns this high, it is obvious that the pandemic has increased the cost of voting for many Americans. But this does not need to be merely an assumption; the Pew Research Center found through a survey that “about two-thirds of Americans (65%) say the option to vote early or absentee should be available to any voter without requiring a documented reason, while a third say early and absentee voting should only be allowed with a reason”. Voters see the problem and know what solution they want. It is now up to the party leaders to decide how vital it is for their chances of winning this November. No matter what they choose, the cost of voting in a pandemic needs to be minimized to see the same turnout usually found in presidential elections. Mail-in and absentee ballots will likely play a larger role in this election than in previous years for this reason.
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