Monday, July 27, 2020

Women in the 2020 General Presidential Election: Why, and For What Strategic Purpose?

Blog Post #2 - Spencer Manning

Overview of Issue

Generally, a large proportion of American citizens believe each Presidential election is truly historic; as such, many believe that the candidates selected for office can drastically change the implications and consequences of our nation's future. While the 2020 Presidential election is no different, it is truly historic in its own right. More than a year and a half ago, Tulsi Gabbard, a former combat veteran, and Hawaiian member in the U.S. House of Representatives, officially announced her intention to obtain the Democrat presidential nomination for this year's election; soon after, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Marianne Williamson each announced their presidential ambitions, and marked the single largest female presidential nominee pool ever. However, while the Democrat primary election has come and gone, along with Joe Biden's primary victory, Biden reiterated and confirmed a general sentiment among the general public, which is, "If I'm elected president... I will... pick a woman to be Vice President (VP)" (CNN Reference). Such a selection shouldn't be considered sheer happenstance, or even indifference, instead, we should consider it a strategic attempt by the Democrat Party/Selectorate to win the Presidency in November. But what is the strategy? 

Figure 1
According to Pew Research Center (PRC), 52% of registered female American voters lean democrat, giving credence to the notion that political parties appeal to the demographics in their voter constituency (PRC - Party Affiliation). However, and more importantly, recent social justice affairs and the continued coronavirus pandemic draw significant attention to the volatility, divisiveness, and distrust in the current United States political landscape and government (Figure 2); accordingly, many suggest a female VP in the White House may be the perfect remedy to the nation's challenges.

Based on PRC data, women currently in/or seeking political positions have a number of distinct gender advantages over their male counterparts, especially in regard to certain character traits which alleviate some challenges of the political climate. As such, these advantages are based on polling data from the general public, they include: a 61% to 5% advantage over men in compassion and empathy; a 42% to 8% advantage over men wherein they can work out differences through compromise; a 31% to 4% advantage over men in honesty and ethical posture; a 34% to 9% advantage over men with the ability to maintain a tone of civility and respect (PRC - Women in Leadership/ Figure 1). 

Figure 2
Political Theory

Based on our reading of the article Women to the Rescue: The Gendered Effects of Public Discontent on Legislative Nominations in Latin America by Kendall D. Funk, Magda Hinojosa, and Jennifer M. Piscopo seek to understand the salience of the relationship between the increase of political distrust and perceived corruption with "gender stereotypes that regard women as more trustworthy and honest" political representatives. Accordingly, Funk, Hinojosa, and Piscopo make two broad hypotheses to test this causal relationship. First, they hypothesize that "women's nominations will increase as the public becomes more distrustful of the legislature" and government as a whole. Second, they hypothesize that "women’s nominations increase as the public perceives corruption to be commonplace". To test these two hypotheses, they took women's nomination data from the Inter-American Development Bank’s project on Gender and Political Parties in Latin America survey, which used a two-wave survey data set of 100 political parties in 18 Latin American countries; in addition, they took trust/mistrust data from AmericasBarometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project. Following thorough research of multivariate analyses, Funk, Hinojosa, and Piscopo conclude that "gender stereotypes of women as more honest, more trustworthy, and less associated with the traditional political elite can advantage women ...when the public distrusts politicians or perceives high amounts of political corruption". Thus, if a countries' public feels high levels of distrust, corruption, or even disdain for their collective government, it may be in the interest of political parties to nominate female candidates for office (Funk, Hinojosa, and Piscopo).

So What?

Upon the reflection of the recent social justice and Covid-19 events (which have propagated strong negative political emotions among the public), as well as our understanding of the causal relationship between political distrust with a higher likelihood of female representation in political parties, we come to understand that Joe Biden's upcoming announcement of a female VP candidate will be a strong appeal to voters because of the positive attributes of women's gender stereotypes. Moreover, a Democrat/Joe Biden nomination of a female VP candidate for the 2020 election will be crucial to gathering the vote of a number of different groups, including: (female) independents, fringe voters, (female) Democrats, and others who see female representatives as particularly likable and trustworthy amid these times of (supposed) corruption, polarization and distrust. We also recently learned about one of the large roles of political parties (which is to nominate candidates best positioned to win elections); therefore, we should clearly see that Democrat leadership is employing a strategy to best position Joe Biden to win the 2020 presidency. In conclusion, while gender stereotypes certainly can benefit both male and female politicians, a female VP may be seen as better equipped to unify, heal, and bring ethical representation to a distrustful political environment.

References:

Funk, Kendall D., Magda Hinojosa, and Jennifer M. Piscopo. “Women to the Rescue: The Gendered Effects of Public Discontent on Legislative Nominations in Latin America.” Party Politics, 2019, 135406881985661. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068819856614.




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