With Corona Cases on the Rise, How Low Will Voter Turnout Tumble?

   As COVID-19 continues to sweep across the United States, affecting the lives of nearly all Americans, the 2020 presidential election looms not too far off in the distance. While President Trump has sounded off and sparked numerous debates on the security and validity of mail-in ballots, the question of how high will voter turnout be in a majority-mail-in election remains to be asked. 

    While most would agree that a high level of voter turnout would be considered positively achieving a democratic ideal, the means by which high levels are attained is fiercely debated and often partisan in nature. Early voting is the most often called for method to improve voter turnout, and logically, you would think, it makes sense – give people a greater window to vote in, and you will get more people to vote. Unfortunately, this is not so.  

    A group of researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison ran a statistical analysis on the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections to determine which methods produced the greatest increases in voter turnout. They found that “Election Day registration has a consistently positive effect on turnout, whereas the most popular reform—early voting—is actually associated with lower turnout when it is implemented by itself” (Burden et al. 2004). Amongst the 41 states that had Early Voting options (Figure 1), 21 states have Same Day or Election Day Registration options (Figure 2). 

 

Figure 1 - States with Early Voting Options

 

 

    To throw a wrench into this year’s turnout, COVID-19 has pushed many states, such as Utah, to suspend Election Day registration and shift towards an all absentee/mail-in vote. States with Election Day voting have logged over 1.4 million cases so far, giving good reason for many to speculate over the safety of physically going to a polling place and registering to vote. So, with the mighty Election Day registration brought to its knees, early voting is left to run solo.  

     Philpot et al. (2009) recant the success that the Obama campaign reaped in 2008 from the seeds relentlessly sewn by a grinding ground game. Now insert Coronavirus to the equation. With the idea of a ground game pushed to the brink of extinction due to social distancing ordinances, parties are restrained in the ways that they can mobilize their constituents.